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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(8:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-N.Agholor to DEN 2 for 1 yard (25-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +4.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.33 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 3, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model