Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 67

Denver Broncos 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 38

(6:30) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PHI 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 38-K.Barner to PHI 23 for 8 yards (32-A.Janovich; 31-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model