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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 11

Denver Broncos 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 44

What Actually Happened

(11:14) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short left to 88-D.Thomas to PHI 2 for 9 yards (24-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model