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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 96

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 9-S.Lechler punts 51 yards to IND 45, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +1.01 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 96, worth -5.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 53, worth -2.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model