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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 41

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.79 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP