4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 64

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 9-S.Lechler punts 59 yards to IND 5, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray to IND 16 for 11 yards (9-S.Lechler; 43-C.Moore). PENALTY on IND-85-B.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at IND 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.90 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 64, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 22, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model