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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 77

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(12:25) 2-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.78 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP