Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 78

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Houston Texans 7

(7:53) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to HOU 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-W.Fuller V to HOU 34 for 4 yards (50-A.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.88 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model