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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 54

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to IND 9, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.81 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 54, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model