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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 45

Houston Texans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 40 yards to IND 5, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.41 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.32 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model