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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 2-R.Sanchez punts 26 yards to HOU 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.31 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model