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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 7

Houston Texans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage sacked at IND 17 for -10 yards (93-J.Sheard). FUMBLES (93-J.Sheard) [93-J.Sheard], touched at IND 23, RECOVERED by IND-52-B.Mingo at IND 34. 52-B.Mingo to IND 34 for no gain (12-B.Ellington).

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.96 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 7, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth +0.03 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP