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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 73

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to IND 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray to IND 25 for no gain (14-C.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 31, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model