Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 62

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(4:12) 9-S.Lechler punts 56 yards to IND 6, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-Q.Bray to IND 19 for 13 yards (41-Z.Cunningham; 46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.60 EP
60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model