Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 0

(3:14) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to HOU 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 15-W.Fuller V to HOU 30 for no gain (28-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.03 EP
54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model