Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 77

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(12:35) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to KC 36, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.58 EP
57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model