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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(3:27) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 29 yards to KC 18, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.92 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP