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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:52) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to KC 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.14 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP