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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 86

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:13) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to DAL 37, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.60 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 86, worth -5.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 44, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model