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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 43

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(5:12) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 38-J.Heath at DAL 36. 38-J.Heath to DAL 39 for 3 yards (61-M.Morse).

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.29 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -1.65 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model