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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 43

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to KC 2, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 10-T.Hill to KC 2 for no gain (84-J.Hanna).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.89 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP