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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 31

New York Giants 7 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 2-A.Rosas 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.42 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 41, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model