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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 48 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to NYG 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.70 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model