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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 48 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 4-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.92 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model