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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.93 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 9, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model