Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 79

Miami Dolphins 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

(3:43) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to LV 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 30-J.Richard to LV 38 for 8 yards (78-T.Fede).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.24 EP
62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model