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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 89

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(9:43) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 49 yards to MIA 40, Center-59-J.Condo. 19-J.Grant to MIA 45 for 5 yards (55-M.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.71 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 89, worth -5.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model