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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 14 at the 17

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(7:35) 2-G.Tavecchio 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model