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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 21

Seattle Seahawks 2 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 7-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.95 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model