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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 2 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 9-J.Ryan punts 42 yards to WAS 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 23-D.Hall pushed ob at WAS 33 for 7 yards (28-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model