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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 52

Washington Commanders 10 – Seattle Seahawks 2

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to SEA 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.94 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 52, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model