Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 80

Washington Commanders 10 – Seattle Seahawks 2

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to SEA 44, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 44 for no gain (55-C.Carter; 50-M.Spaight). WAS-50-M.Spaight was injured during the play. PENALTY on SEA-57-M.Wilhoite, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.43 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model