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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 8 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(7:55) 9-J.Ryan punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.95 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP