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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 9-J.Ryan punts 33 yards to WAS 6, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-82-L.Willson.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model