4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 26

Seattle Seahawks 2 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 7-B.Walsh 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model