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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 30

Tennessee Titans 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(8:11) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.87 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model