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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(14:08) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to CIN 31, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 24-A.Jones pushed ob at TEN 46 for 23 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model