Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Tennessee Titans 17

(9:46) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.80 EP
54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model