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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(8:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 74 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.14 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model