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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(7:03) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to TEN 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 26 for 3 yards (16-C.Core).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 73, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 31, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model