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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(5:59) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 66 yards to CIN 11, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 18 for 7 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.47 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model