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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 50

Tennessee Titans 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model