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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 42

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to ATL 2, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-25-X.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model