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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 19 at the 78

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 5-M.Bosher punts 41 yards to DAL 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 48 for 11 yards (53-L.Reynolds; 80-L.Toilolo).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.16 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 78, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 35, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model