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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 2-M.Nugent 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model