Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 19 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Atlanta Falcons 24

(12:33) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to ATL 43, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-59-A.Hitchens.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 84, worth -4.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model