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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 11

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.73 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model