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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 42

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 6-C.Jones punts 32 yards to ATL 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model