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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(4:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at ATL 31 for -11 yards (50-B.Reed). Penalty on DAL-75-B.Bell, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.84 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP