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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 31

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 40-D.Coleman right guard to DAL 26 for 5 yards (54-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +1.87 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 31, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.64 EP